Assessment of the possibility of replacing the Bełchatów Power Plant

author: enervis energy advisors GmbH

Full text of the analisis

Energy from the sun, wind and gas will replace the Bełchatów Power Plant by 2035 at the latest.

Key trends:

  • the costs of obtaining energy from fossil fuels is increasing (the prices of CO2 emission allowances and of the fuels themselves are increasing)
  • the costs of renewable energy sources (RES) are constantly decreasing
  • the cost of electricity from lignite over its entire life cycle exceeds the cost of electricity from RES and continues to grow
  • there is no prospect of a decrease in the cost of energy from nuclear power plants

The scenario considered for the coal phase-out will cause:

  • a sharp drop in CO2 emissions between 2025 and 2035
  • additional reduction of CO2 emissions by 20% due to an early shutdown of the Bełchatów Power Plant
  • 42-64% less emissions of substances harmful to health and air quality than in the Energy Policy plans for 2040
  • 64 billion euros in savings, including 4 billion euros due to an early shutdown of the Bełchatów Power Plant
  • 45% more jobs in the Polish solar and wind energy sector than in lignite
  • the country’s greater independence from energy imports thanks to RES

The scenario:

  • gradual replacement of 11 lignite-fired units, i.e. 85% of the capacity of the Bełchatów Power Plant, with a mix of onshore wind farms, photovoltaic energy and gas by 2030
  • shutdown of the last lignite unit in the Bełchatów Power Plant by 2035

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